By George Esunge Fominyen
Zambia's President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa died on 19 August 2008 in Paris. He had been in a critical condition since June 29 when he suffered a stroke while attending the African Union Summit in Egypt. Like all Presidents he was not loved by all, but most accounts by Zambians in blogs, radio shows and comments on internet sites (such as the BBC) show that he was highly regarded by most of his countrymen. I would like to express my deepest condolences to the Zambian nation at this trying moment in their history. However, I must admit that President Mwanawasa's death in office has re-ignited troubling thoughts about what happens when a seemingly stable African country loses its chief executive before his term expires.
The Ivorian Experience
Under the stewardship of it first leader Houphououet Boigny (1960-1993) the Ivory Coast was an example of stability and economic success in Francophone West Africa. With a firm grip on things, Boigny kept this melting pot of ethnic and religious groups together, steering the country safe from the miltary coups that rocked the West African region. He died in 1993 in the middle of his term of office which he had won in a disputed election in which a ceratin Laurent Gbagbo was thought to have won.
Unfortunately, it seems the old man had not prepared his exit. Among the many potential successors within his political grouping, the pecking order was unclear, if not inexistent. Sharp divisions appeared among the front-runners on ethnic and religious lines. After flawed elections in 1995 the country deeped into political crisis that reached breaking point on 25 December 1999 when Ivory Coast experienced its first military coup. Since then the country fell into turmoil to the extent of being split into two parts following a rebellion. It is still in lethargy as a peace deal setting up a union government continues to prop the country until elections expected to hold in November 2008.
The Zambian Context
According to the Zambian Constitution of 1991, in case of vacancy in the office of President an election has to be held within six months of the office becoming vacant. Until these elections are held, the Vice-President or a Member of Cabinet elected by the Cabinet (in the case where the Vice President is absent or incapacitated) performs the functions of the office of President. It is on the merit of this that the current Vice-President Rupiah Banda is expected to take over as acting President. Will it be a smoother transition than what obtained in Ivory Coast? Let's hope so.
However, news from Zambia was not so encouraging before the announcement of Mwanawasa's passing on. The Christian Science Monitor had reported on 29 July 2008 that "even as Zambians hope(d) for Mwanawasa's recovery, his condition...set up the beginnings of a power struggle in Zambia's ruling party and could pose a key test for a young democracy that has never lost a head of state to death or illness."
The Christian Science Monitor went on to explain that Mwanawasa had not yet anointed a successor within the ruling party although the Finance Minister and even his wife had been mentioned as potential candidates for the elections that should have been organised at the end of his term of office in 2011. So what happens now?
What About Cameroon?
That is a question that could also haunt Cameroonians? If one has to go by the proponents of the last amendment to the Cameroon Constitution in April 2008, things have been defined to avert crisis. According to article 6 (4) (new) Where the office of President of the Republic becomes vacant as a result of death, resignation or permanent incapacity duly ascertained by the Constitutional Council, the polls for the election of the new President of the Republic must be held not less than 20(twenty) days and not more than 120 (one hundred and twenty days after the office becomes vacant.
(a) The President of the Senate shall as of right act as interim President of the Republic until the new President of the Republic is elected. Where the President of the Senate is unable to exercise his powers, they shall be exercised by his Vice, following the order of precedence.
(b) The interim President of the Republic – the President of the Senate or his Vice may neither amend the Constitution nor the composition of the government. He may not organize a referendum or run for the office of President of the Republic.
(c) However, where the organization of the presidential election requires, the interim President of the Republic may, after consultation with the Constitutional Council, amend the composition of the government.
This looks interesting on paper. Regretably the truth of the matter is that a senate does not exist in Cameroon at the time of writing this piece. What if a member of the ruling group were to dispute by legal means the arrogation of the duties of the President of the Senate by the President of the National Assembly? It looks far-fetched but it could happen.
Presently, it seems the members of the ruling elite are mostly at each others throat as they tussle to position themselves in lead for an eventual successor's role. It is even widely suspected that the ongoing anti-graft campaign which has seen former close aides of the President (such as former ministers of Economy and Finance, Public Health, External relations and the all important Secretary General at the Presidency of the Republic) detained on charges of corruption could be a settling of political scores between factions in the ruling party. All of which does not augur well for stability in an immediate post- Biya situation.
Fixing the Problems of Political Succession in Africa
In the interview given to France 24 last year, President Paul Biya of Cameroon intimated that he was not keen on naming a successor, arguing that the idea of chosen successor defeats the ideals of a Republic. He suggested that it was up to the people of Cameroon to choose when the time shall come. But what if the time comes faster than expected?
I have the gut feeling that Zambia will not collapse due to political crisis stemming from President Levy Mwanawasa's death. However, few African states are rarely built on solid principles of democracy and nationhood. As mere glued patchworks of colonial empires that fissure and tear away at the least jolt, the stability of many an African country is centred on a powerful individual than on firm institutions. given that we all know this problem exixts, isn't it time for the men and women who lead these countries to fix it and end the syndrome of "après moi le deluge"?
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